China BEATS GDP Estimate

Tuesday, July 15th, 2025

World News — Trump Flip Flopped on Ukraine

Economists

After months of fluctuating policy and attempts at rapprochement with Vladimir Putin, President Trump has reversed course, announcing on July 14th that the United States will resume supplying Ukraine with Patriot air-defense missiles and other weapons, while threatening 100% secondary tariffs on countries trading with Russia if a peace deal is not reached within 50 days. This shift comes as European allies are now expected to purchase these weapons for Ukraine, rather than the U.S. providing them directly or using American funds, leaving billions in previously authorized aid untouched. While Ukrainian officials welcomed the renewed arms flow, they expressed concern over the 50-day delay in economic penalties, fearing Russia will exploit the window to intensify attacks. Oil markets and observers remain skeptical that the tariffs will be enforced, and a separate bipartisan bill proposing even harsher penalties still grants Trump significant discretion. The specifics of the military aid remain unclear, including the quantity of Patriot systems and the possible provision of long-range missiles, as global supplies are strained. Trump’s approach, marked by unpredictability and shifting alliances, leaves doubts about whether the new assistance will be sufficient to halt Russia’s advances, especially as attitudes toward Ukraine within Trump’s base and administration remain mixed. The situation underscores the uncertainty of U.S. policy, the resilience of Russian objectives, and the ongoing diplomatic efforts by Ukraine and its allies to influence America’s stance.

Tech — Nvidia Can Now Sell H20s to China

Bloomberg

Nvidia is set to resume sales of its H20 artificial intelligence chips to China after receiving assurances from U.S. officials that export licenses will be approved, marking a significant reversal of the Trump administration’s earlier restrictions. The H20, a less powerful chip designed specifically to comply with U.S. export controls, had been blocked from the Chinese market since April, resulting in billions of dollars in unsold inventory for Nvidia. The decision follows recent meetings between Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and President Trump, as well as Huang’s ongoing engagement with Chinese industry leaders in Beijing. The announcement sparked positive reactions in global markets, with tech stocks in Hong Kong and China surging. Nvidia also plans to launch a new, fully compliant RTX PRO chip for China that falls below U.S. regulatory thresholds. This policy shift is seen as a win for Nvidia and the broader AI supply chain, and is expected to ease tensions in U.S.-China tech relations, even as debates continue over the strategic implications of advanced chip exports.

Economics — China Beats GDP Estimate

FT

China’s economy grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, slightly surpassing analyst expectations and keeping Beijing on track to meet its full-year growth target of around 5%, despite ongoing challenges from weak domestic demand and a struggling property sector. The stronger-than-expected performance was largely driven by resilient exports, which benefited from a temporary truce in the U.S.-China trade war, allowing Chinese producers to boost overseas shipments. However, uncertainty looms as the Trump administration considers tightening trade restrictions, including imposing tariffs on Chinese goods rerouted through third countries like Vietnam. While policymakers in Beijing are expected to fine-tune economic measures to maintain growth momentum, concerns are rising over industrial overcapacity and intensifying domestic price wars. With President Xi Jinping facing critical trade negotiations in the coming weeks, the balance between export strength and internal economic pressures remains a key challenge for China’s economic outlook.

Culture — Gen Z’s Flex? Waterbottle

Economists

For Gen Z, reusable water bottles have evolved from practical hydration tools into coveted fashion accessories, with oversized tumblers like Stanley cups becoming symbols of personal style and self-care. Social media trends, particularly on TikTok under hashtags like #WaterTok, have fueled the craze, with users customizing their bottles with stickers, keychains, and even snack trays. Brands such as Stanley, Owala, and Yeti are capitalizing on the demand by releasing colorful designs and celebrity collaborations, including recent launches with Olivia Rodrigo, Post Malone, and Lionel Messi. The obsession is driven in part by a belief in water’s benefits for skin and mental clarity—a phenomenon dubbed “hydration inflation”—and has turned the drinkware market into a $4 billion industry in the U.S. alone. While Gen Z is known for its eco-consciousness, the trend is more about aesthetics than sustainability, with limited-edition bottles fetching up to $800 on resale markets, transforming water bottles into literal liquid assets.

The Daily Spark

One consequence of a shrinking population in Japan is that there are more and more vacant homes, see chart below.

Song Recommendation — Me, Myself, and I

Quote of the Day

“The only way to do great work is to love what you do." - Steve Jobs