LABUBU

Friday, June 20th, 2025

World Events — Where Will the Iran-Israel War End? 

Economists

The Iran-Israel war's endpoint remains highly uncertain, with outcomes heavily contingent on U.S. intervention decisions. Iran has explicitly warned that American involvement would trigger "all-out war" through retaliatory actions like blocking the Strait of Hormuz or attacking U.S. regional assets. While Israel's strikes have weakened Iran's military and nuclear capabilities, experts caution that air power alone cannot eliminate Iran's nuclear ambitions and may instead deepen its resolve to acquire weapons. President Trump's pending decision within two weeks on joining Israeli strikes—potentially using superior U.S. bunker-busting bombs—could escalate the conflict into a broader regional conflagration or force Iran into diplomatic talks. Without a verifiable nuclear agreement or regime change, prolonged cyclical conflict appears likely, as neither military action nor current diplomacy offers a clear resolution.

Tech — What Are Ransomeware? 

Bloomberg

Ransomware is a type of malicious software that encrypts a victim’s computer files and demands payment—usually in cryptocurrency—for their release, and it has grown into a persistent global threat over the past decade. The rise of cryptocurrencies has made it easier for cybercriminals to profit anonymously, while the development of "ransomware-as-a-service" has lowered the barrier to entry, allowing even less sophisticated hackers to launch attacks. These attacks have disrupted everything from hospitals and schools to major retailers like Marks & Spencer, which suffered a £300 million hit in 2025. Ransomware groups, often based in Russia or Eastern Europe and sometimes state-sponsored, use phishing, unpatched software, and social engineering to gain network access, frequently resorting to double extortion by threatening to leak stolen data. Despite international crackdowns, such as the disruption of the notorious LockBit gang, ransomware remains a lucrative and evolving menace, with hackers quickly rebranding and resuming their activities after law enforcement actions.

Business — The Rise of Pop Mart (Labubu)

FT

Pop Mart’s meteoric rise, driven by the global frenzy for its Labubu doll, has transformed it into China’s most valuable toy company, with a market capitalization now surpassing that of Mattel and Hasbro combined and reaching over $42 billion as of June 2025. The company’s unique “blind box” sales model, where customers purchase mystery figurines at retail and often trade them at premium prices in secondary markets, has created an emotional and collectible craze—evidenced by in-store brawls and record-breaking secondary market prices, such as a human-sized Labubu selling for Rmb1.2 million at auction. While Pop Mart’s ambitious global expansion and innovative IP strategy have fueled explosive revenue growth and made its founder, Wang Ning, one of China’s richest individuals, analysts caution that the company’s long-term success depends on its ability to continually introduce new, appealing characters and maintain its emotional connection with young consumers, as the toy market remains highly competitive and trend-driven.

Culture — Why India Has So Many Snakebites

Economists

India’s high number of snakebites—accounting for up to a third of global incidents and about 40% of deaths—stems from its large rural population, dense snake populations, and the frequent overlap between human habitats and the natural environments of venomous species, especially during the monsoon when rains drive snakes from their burrows and into contact with people. Most fatalities and injuries are caused by the “big four” snakes—cobra, common krait, Russell’s viper, and saw-scaled viper—with the poorest and most remote communities disproportionately affected due to limited access to healthcare, reliance on traditional healers, and high out-of-pocket costs for antivenom. Solutions must focus on robust data collection, better healthcare infrastructure, affordable and region-specific antivenom, and community education—combined with practical interventions like improved sanitation, safer grain storage, and providing rural populations with shoes and raised cots to reduce direct contact with snakes. The Indian government’s recent national action plan, which includes making snakebite a notifiable disease and ensuring antivenom availability at all health facilities, marks important steps toward reducing this preventable burden. 

The Daily Spark 

Active managers in public markets have largely not been able to beat their index, see here and here.

As a result, modern asset allocation is moving to a model where fixed income replacement plays a key role as generator of alpha in portfolios, see chart below.

Song Recommendation — First Love 

Quote of the Day 

“Moonlight drowns out all but the brightest stars.” ― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Lord of the Rings