The End to Long-term American Prosperity

Friday, July 4th, 2025

World Events — Canada’s Ambition to Become an Energy Superpower 

FT

Canada’s ambition to become an energy superpower is centered on leveraging its vast fossil fuel reserves—particularly natural gas—through large-scale projects like the recently launched LNG Canada export terminal in Kitimat, British Columbia. This facility, backed by Shell and several Asian partners, marks the country’s first major move into the global LNG market, enabling Canadian producers to export directly to Asia rather than relying solely on the US as a market. The government, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, has pledged to diversify energy exports and insulate the economy from US trade actions, such as tariffs imposed by former President Trump. However, Canada faces significant hurdles: a legacy of regulatory delays, strong environmental opposition, logistical challenges in building infrastructure, and stiff competition from the US, now the world’s largest LNG exporter. Despite these obstacles, new legislation aims to fast-track project approvals, and there is growing Indigenous participation and ownership in LNG ventures, which could help overcome past conflicts and unlock further development. If Canada successfully expands its LNG capacity, it could capture a larger share of surging Asian demand and strengthen its position in global energy markets, though experts caution that the window of opportunity may be limited as the world moves toward renewables.

Tech — China Is Building an Entire Empire On Data 

Economists

China is rapidly constructing a data-driven empire by harnessing the digital output of its 1.1 billion internet users and an extensive network of surveillance technologies, embedding data management deeply into both its economy and national security apparatus. President Xi Jinping has elevated data to a core factor of production, equating its importance with labor and capital, and is pushing for a unified "national data ocean" that spans consumer, industrial, and state activity. Recent regulatory moves—such as compelling government data sharing, valuing data as state assets, and rolling out a new digital ID system that centralizes online identities—are designed to streamline AI development and lower barriers for innovation, but also risk creating a powerful tool for state surveillance and control. While these measures promise economic advantages and AI leadership, they raise significant concerns about privacy, civil liberties, and innovation incentives, especially given China’s poor record on data security and the potential for abuse. As democracies struggle to balance efficiency with rights protections, China’s centralized approach may set a new global standard—one that is efficient, but potentially dystopian, challenging both the economic and political models of the West.

Economics — Trumps’s BBB Will Erode American Prosperity 

Economists

Trumponomics 2.0, exemplified by the recently passed "One Big Beautiful Bill," is set to undermine the long-term foundations of America’s prosperity by extending unsustainable tax cuts, maintaining a high budget deficit—currently 6.7% of GDP—and pushing the national debt-to-GDP ratio above its postwar peak within two years. While the bill offers short-term relief through tax breaks and spending cuts, it does so at the expense of the most vulnerable, notably by slashing Medicaid and repealing clean energy tax credits, which will increase the number of uninsured Americans and leave the country without a federal decarbonization policy. The reliance on tariffs for revenue, combined with persistent high deficits, is projected to reduce long-run GDP by about 6% and wages by 5%, with middle-income households facing significant lifetime losses. The bill’s passage through a dysfunctional legislative process, coupled with attacks on the Federal Reserve, defunding of scientific research, and a retreat from the rule of law, further erodes investor confidence and America’s economic resilience. Despite optimistic projections of growth, most analyses suggest these policies will crowd out private investment, heighten uncertainty, and risk fiscal crisis, ultimately leaving the U.S. economy weaker and less comp.

Culture — Japan’s Demographic Time Bomb

The Daily Spark

The recent rise in WARN notices points to an increase in the unemployment rate in June. A WARN notice is a legal requirement for US employers to provide at least 60 days advance written notice to employees, their representatives, and government officials before conducting a mass layoff, plant closing, or relocation.

Song Recommendation — When Did I Say Forever 

Quote of the Day

“Loneliness does not come from having no one around us but instead being unable to communicate the things that matter most to us.” - Carl Jung