Yes, 50% Tariff on Copper

Wednesday, July 9th, 2025

World Events — Trump U-Turns on Ukraine, Again

Economists

President Trump’s abrupt reversal on halting arms shipments to Ukraine has exposed deep divisions within his administration and embarrassed Pentagon leadership. After alarming both Ukraine and European allies by stopping weapons deliveries earlier this month, Trump countermanded the order at a White House dinner, overriding his own defense secretary and policy officials who had advocated a shift in resources away from Europe. The Pentagon initially justified the pause as necessary to maintain U.S. stockpiles, but this rationale was undermined by the continued, uninterrupted flow of weapons to Israel and the fact that current shipments to Ukraine come from new production, not existing U.S. reserves. Trump’s U-turn, prompted by Ukraine’s escalating losses under intense Russian attack, is a short-term victory for common sense, but it does not signal a lasting commitment. The resumed shipments merely restore the previous, dwindling flow of aid authorized by the Biden administration, with no new commitments or funding forthcoming from either Trump or Congress. This episode highlights the unpredictability of Trump’s foreign policy, driven by his personal calculations and shifting moods rather than by strategic consensus, leaving Ukraine’s fate—and America’s credibility—uncertain as the war grinds on.

Tech — Meta Goes All In on AI Glasses

Bloomberg

Meta Platforms has acquired a nearly 3% stake in EssilorLuxottica, the world’s largest eyewear maker and parent company of Ray-Ban and Oakley, in a deal valued at about €3 billion ($3.5 billion). This investment deepens Meta’s partnership with EssilorLuxottica, with whom it has collaborated since 2019 to develop AI-powered smart glasses, including the popular Ray-Ban Meta and newly launched Oakley Meta lines. The move underscores Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s commitment to wearable technology as a key platform for AI, aiming to leverage EssilorLuxottica’s manufacturing expertise and global distribution to accelerate adoption of smart glasses and reduce reliance on smartphones as the primary channel for Meta’s services. Meta is reportedly considering increasing its stake to around 5% in the future, further aligning the two companies as they seek to make AI eyewear a mainstream consumer product.

Economics — US Copper Price Rises As Trump Threatens 50% Tariff 

FT

US copper prices surged to an all-time high after President Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports, a move that far exceeded market expectations and triggered a record one-day jump in New York copper futures, which closed up 13% at $5.69 a pound. The announcement, part of Trump’s escalating trade war, sent traders scrambling to secure supplies before the tariffs take effect, with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick indicating the measures could be implemented by the end of July or early August. The US relies heavily on copper imports, particularly from Chile, which supplies about 70% of US refined copper imports, and the tariffs are expected to disrupt global supply chains, drive up costs for US manufacturers, and create a significant premium for US copper over global prices. The spike in copper prices also lifted shares of major US copper producers, while analysts warned that the tariffs could ultimately hurt US manufacturing and lead to market dislocations as buyers rush to import copper before the levies are imposed.

Culture — American Man Are Hungry for Injectable Testosterone

Economists

American men’s demand for injectable testosterone is surging, fueled by a wave of new health clinics like Gameday Men’s Health that promise quick, convenient access to testosterone replacement therapy (TRT) in upscale, “man cave”-style settings. In just over a year, the number of Gameday franchises exploded from 50 to 375, reflecting a nationwide boom: TRT prescriptions jumped from 7.3 million in 2019 to 11 million in 2024, with the fastest uptake among men under 35. While declining testosterone levels—linked to factors like obesity and environmental toxins—are a genuine medical concern, the trend is also being driven by celebrity endorsements, social media influencers, and a broader cultural embrace of “optimization.” Many clinics now offer injections even to men with normal hormone levels but vague symptoms, sometimes without proper diagnostic testing, raising concerns about safety, quality of care, and the use of unregulated compounded drugs. Although moderate TRT is generally safe, misuse can cause infertility and other side effects, and the market’s rapid, loosely regulated growth has created a patchwork of standards and a thriving black market, as demand continues to outpace traditional medical oversight.

The Daily Spark 

The bond market continues to price the next Fed move to be a cut, with the expectation that growth is slowing down.

But the stock market is trading cyclicals higher relative to defensives, with the expectation that growth is about to accelerate, see chart below.

This is not consistent. Either the bond market is wrong, and rates must move higher due to accelerating growth. Or, equity markets are wrong, and stocks have to move lower because growth is slowing down.

Song Recommendation — Paul

Quote of the Day 

“Don't be pushed around by the fears in your mind. Be led by the dreams in your heart.” - Roy T. Bennett, The Light in the Heart